Winds Up . . .

No RC flying to speak of, getting tired of just fixing airplanes. But I needed to do that to really get ready for when wind conditions are ideal.

Got my Mountaineer back from hail damage repair, the job was just super, looks almost new to me. Costly but then I intend to keep the vehicle a while so might as well get it done and the insurance company paid for most of it.

A neighbor runs a paint and repair shop, so had him do it. Service King did the estimate and I did not like the looks of their operation. The Oneil's gave me a modest $50 "good neighbor" discount and really did a superior job. They were recommended to me by the local Lincoln Mercury dealer, also a neighbor.

Felt trapped without a second vehicle but we got by very easily on one car for a short period of time.

Oh, the Woe and Misery . . .

Oh, the woe and misery predicted by the liberal press over using the Morganza Floodway seems to have disappeared from the national scene entirely.

Earlier, it was, "You are going to flood a town, to flood Butte LaRose." Now they have seen (a) the flood is not tramatic but presistent and (b) it has not over whelmed the town nor the spillway for that matter.

It appears the dry/drought conditions have soaked up a lot of the water and while the Atchafalaya is rising, it is not inundating everything around it. Yes, there is more to come and there are yet some small communities in the line of fire, those communities knew it and are preparing for it.

It could be disaster down river from Morganza, now it is not even close. Some worry, some risk but the real pressure of over topping the levees is gone.

The Morganza Spill worked, the Old River Structure is still in place and the June rise has yet to ocurr. Yes, there will be yet another highwater condition coming down stream but not as severe as the present one.

Old Man River is doing what Old Man River wants to do, within limits.

Things are looking up . . .

Things are looking up in that the Atchafalaya will crest at a lower elevation at Morgan City/Berwick area. Those little communities like Stephenville and Amelia are making preparations and with a lower forecasted crest may help them avert disaster.

Butte LaRose may not get it as bad as forecasted too. I understand there are some hold outs that will not leave their hoomes. Sounds like Mount St. Helens kind of thinking to me. All too fatalistic. And they had dire results, the same could happen to the hold outs in Butte LaRose. I guess that is why they live there to begin with, isolation and the beauty of the swamp. It is all they have and they just do not want to give it up.

Last I read there now 17 gates open in the Morganza Spillway Structure. I understand they will get to 21 gates now. Even so, at 17 gates the estimate is 114 thousand cubic feet per second going through that massive structure. Photos from the space station show just how much water has already gone through those gates. The concept and design is working. If they go to 21 gates, that is about 17% of the capacity of the control structure. I understand the crest at Vicksburg was not as high as forecasted, by less than a half a foot or so.

That just means the accumalators, the balloons, are soaking up a lot of the water and some of it is going into the ground. That also means those same accumalators will slowle release their water holdings over a longer period of time. So while the crest may not be as high as expected the duration will last longer. That to is a risk in that the levees will have to hold for a longer period of time. And time is one of the many enemies of a levee.

Not so lucky up river at Yazoo City/Vicksburg area. Memphis too. The low lying areas all flooded as expected. They live to learn their lessons again. But the poor usually have no where else to go but into the "cheap" territory. They get the land cheap and their small houses get consumed every so often. Others learn about how tributaries back up because they have no place to send their water and in fact get water pushed up their courses. No matter what you house cost it is a terrible loss.

It is never pretty. Saw where a three grain barges ran into a parked barge, sank all three of the barges. One came back up but it was enough to shut the river down in North Baton Rouge. The Old Mississippi Bridge abuttment had to be inspected and the sunk barges located. The rivermen say it is very hard to control the tows when the water is high - that means faster currents, more trash and snags moving down the river, etc. A few years back an empty gasoline barge hit an abuttment of that bridge and blew up. It knocked a large piece of decking out on the West bound side of the bridge closing it for a while.

Old Man River is the master!

The Snake . . .

There was a photo of an alledged snake along side of the road coming out of the Morganza Spillway. I think that photo went viral.

Turns out it is either a Brazilian or Australian photo. The trees in the back ground are nothing like ones would find in and around the Morganza Spillway. So it is a hoax, kinda got to expect some of that given that we are dealing with a sort of premordial area like a swamp.

There are more than one vedio shot of deer escaping the spillway heading for high and dry ground. Since there is a large wildlife area in Pointe Coupee over close to Krotz Springs, it extends down into Iberville Parish. I mean the area is not much good for anything else.

Apparently the water is not moving south as fast as the Corps of Engineers expected into the Atchafalaya Swamp and basin. But then the Mississippi has not crested either. So I expect they will open a few more gates to discharge about 100 to 150 thousand cubic feet per second. A cubic foot holds 7.4805 gallons, so that is about three quarters of million of gallons a second. That is a lot of water to turn loose.

We have several more weeks of this to deal with. Then when to close the gates as the river goes down, we will see what has transpire at the spillway structure. I am sure there will be much work to do to repair things. Got to replace or rearrange rip rap, check for scouring, replacement of soil in front of the structure etc., that will take some time to assess and evaluate.

We need to get ready for the flood to occur again. But it appears the Morganza Spillway is doing its intended job, to reduce the flow of the Mississippi in a controled and measured manner. It has been done many times at the Bonnet Carre since the 1930s. It has to be very serious for the Morganza Spillway to be opened. And all indicators, the river gauges, show the levels exceed the infamous 1927 flood levels.

It is a pity that over time along these cities or ports of the Mississippi, like Natchez, Vicksburg, and Memphis, all had to relearn the lessons of history. People should not build in the flood zones of those localities. Yet, they do it just like they do it down in the Atchafalaya Swamp. They know better and do it anyway as the land is cheap.

Some Good News . . .

There is some good news coming out of the Morganza Spillway, it appears the recent drought has caused a lot of the water to be absorbed by the soil. That's not much solace for those who had to evacuate but it is a good thing for maybe Morgan City - Berwick in that the river may not rise as much.

Still the water is creeping up at Krotz Springs and up around Melville. I saw a picture of what was reported as Simmesport but not sure. Soon those towns will be isolated by water but yet inside the ring levee will be pretty dry.

Word is that the gates opening is having a decided effect on the lower Mississippi, so Morganza Spillway Structure is doing its job. Also instead of 25% of the gates, and that is about 31 gates, the Corps has dropped the prediction down to 20% of the gates, or about 125 thousand cubic feet per second flow. The crest has not reached Red River Landing yet.

Domr of the prisoners of Angola State Prison have been evacuated to other jails. The local news said it was about 3,000 or so convicts have been relocated. The deputy warden did say the levees were holding and things should be okay.

So we can expect up to 20 gates to be opened at Morganza Spillway. That is an improvement for those in the way of all that water. Not much solace but some.

Saw a video of deer swimming out of the spillway, and a still photograph of a snake that was at least 25 feet long. I don't think the snake is a native but rather somebody's cast off python or something similar. Also a shot of bear swimming out of his habitat.

Some interesting things are being observed. The character of the Mississippi, wild life and Cajuns.

"Nine Gates Open. . . "

Nine gates of the 125 gates of the Morganza Spillway are open. All are fleeing in front of the wall of water: wild life and people. The Atchafalaya Swamp is getting restocked with fish from the Mississippi River.

So far things are working as expected. No one knows what will happen in the forebay of the Morganza Spillway structure. Could a new channel be developing? Or what is occurring the down stream flow out of the gates, will the rip rap hold the soil in place?

People are worried that it can not be closed. But remember it is built at ground level which is way above the channel of the Mississippi. So when the river recedes, the water will not continue to pass through the gates. The gates will be high and dry.

It is said that only 25% of the gates will be opened. The max capacity of the Morganza Structure is 600 thousand cubic feet per second, so that is a rate of about 150 thousand cubic feet per second. That will keep the river from rising any further at Baton Rouge and all places south including New Orleans.

Now that the spillway is opened we must wait and see what happens. If there is a disaster to the south, then I am sure they will open it up all the way to take the pressure off a crevasse. I worry about Upper Pointe Coupee, it is below the Old River Control Structure, and above the Morganza Spillway, so it is at the mercy of the river. A crevasse there would fill Upper Pointe Coupee to the top in about two days and the water would stay there.

Stay there you say, yes. There is no outlet, the water would be trapped by the surrounding levees. Water on both sides and no where to go. In normal times the natural drainage to south end of the area is pumped out into the Atchafalaya River. Those pumps would be submerged and useless. So Upper Pointe Coupee is isolated and must stand by itself.

So what you say, well in the history of crevasses from about 1880 to present day there have been 10 in that region. Even in the 1927 flood, the levee crevassed at McCrea which is a community of sorts in Upper Pointe Coupee along the Atchafalaya River. There was a later crevasse on the other side of the river at almost the same location. All the flooding of that era went down the Atchafalaya basin to the Gulf of Mexico. All the Mississippi River towns like Baton Rouge, White Castle, Plaquemine, Donaldsonville, New Orleans, etc. were saved by those crevasses. The levee did not crevasse on the Mississippi, it did it on the Atchafalaya.

The Morganza Spillway is a man made crevasse that can be controlled. And the excess water is going to the same places as in 1927. Yes, the wider area has levees not to keep it contained in the Atchafalaya valley. The exception is that the Morganza Spillway will not flood Upper Pointe Coupee, the flooding occurs further down river on the same old Atchafalaya.

We will start to see the effects of the spillway in a day or two. We can expect to see the Atchafalaya up stream flow to slow down and rise to cause flooding along that stretch of the river. Already Melville and Krotz Springs are under alert and folks are withdrawing into the ring levees. I suppose Simmsport will be doing the same.

Towns with no protection like Butte LaRose and Stephenville will get flooded. Parts of Morgan City will get flooded, those parts outside the ring levee in particular. Butte LaRose is like on a hump of land down in the swamp. It is not high enough and will get flooded. Not nice but a fact of life.

Pray for those people, they need all the help they can get.

"Old Man River . . ."

The mighty Mississippi is up to its high jinks again. Daddy used to say, "There is no problem in the lower Mississippi valley unless the Missouri rises early and the Ohio rises late." And that seems to be the problem.

The Mississippi south of St Louis is flooding. Already the US Army Corps of Engineers have blown the levee to protect Cairo, IL. Cairo is important because it is the confluence of both the Mississippi and the Ohio rivers. If they had not relieved the pressure from the upper Mississippi, Cairo would have flooded and quite possibly been washed away. I have cross over the Mississippi from the Illinios into Missouri from Cairo on my way home to New Roads from Chanute Air Force Base, IL. When we went to Chanute we crossed over the Ohio from Paducah, KY into Cairo. So I have seen it from both directions so to speak.

The lower Mississippi is constrained at Memphis, Vicksburg, Natchez and Baton Rouge south to the Gulf of Mexico. Between those cities are places along the river that can get up to 10 miles wide and thus act as an accumulator slowing down the flow of the river. But the river really rushes though those locations. The accumulators or balloons help slow down the rate of flow, dampen things so to speak but they do not retain water for long and it all drains back into the river.

When the river rises like it is now, it backs up water in all its tributaries. One has no idea how many those there are - creeks, small rivers even just drainage areas. So while Memphis itself sits on a bluff and is relatively safe, the low lying areas drained by the local watershed is soaked and full to the top. That means all the low lying areas are flooding. That is why those areas are called the flood plain, they are subject to flooding. And that is a well known factor.

The US Government provides flood insurance to those people. No, it is not free. And it has a $15,000 deductible. So it is crisis insurance only. And it is not cheap to get.

When the levee breaks it is called a crevass. Pointe Coupee Parish is most vulnerable to crevasses. It has the Mississippi on the North and East sides of the parish and the Atchafalaya forms the West boundary. In 1927 the Atchafalaya crevassed at McCrea in Pointe Coupee, down river from the present day Simmsport bridge. It also crevassed at Melvillie across the river (West side) and little further south of McCrea. That is why towns of Simmsport, Melville and Krotzsprings on the West side of the Atchafalaya are surrounded by ring levees. You would not notice it too much today as both Krotzsprings and Simmsport have out grown the ring levees and are sprawled wll out beyond the levees.

Just above the Old River Structure, where a US Corps of Engineers constructive effort to keep the Mississippi out of the Atchafalaya river, is a stretch of levee that can be dynamited if necessary. The fear is that if that is done, the raging waters may cut a new channel to the Atchafalaya and leave Baton Rouge South high and dry. So that is truly a last resort location to cut the levee at that point.

The next location is the Morganza Spillway. The town of Morganza is not new to crevasses and once there was a town of New Texas out on the river above Morganza. It has long washed away. The spillway structure is just North of the town on Highway 1 which crosses the structure. Basically, there is a fore bay that stretches from the flood gate structure to the river, perhaps three or four miles in depth. This is one of the accumulators I refer to. The river at that point can reach perhaps 10 or 12 miles wide. Pretty significant size body of flowing water.

The spillway is a series of guide levees that extend down into the great Atchafalaya Swamp and eventually to the Gulf of Mexico. The spillway runs abreast of the Atchafalaya river as it more or less leaves Pointe Coupee Parish to the South. A great deal of water can be absorbed by the swamp and if need be, the lower Atchafalaya levee can be breached to allow the water to flow back into the river making an easier path to gulf.

The guide levees cut off upper Pointe Coupee from any natural drainage. That enclave drains toward the South end of the parish but there the water is cut off. Pumps have been installed to lift the drainage into the Atchafalaya. But if there is a crevass in that area, all there will be flooded severely, up to the roof tops as the levees often reach a design level of 50 feet. Give the terrains ranges from 20 to may 35 feet above sea level, well you can judge for yourself. We are talking about a land mass of say 150 square miles.

Trouble is that Terrebone Parish and cities like Morgan City sit in the path of all this water. Morgan City has a ring levee but like Simmsport it has way outgrown the ring levee. So it is a prime target for flooding if the Morganza Spillway is opened up completely.

New Orleans is protected by the Bonnet Carrie Spillway that goes from the river at Norco to Pontchartrain Lake. The Lake fishermen complain bitterly about its use but there has been not significant damage to the lake ecology due to its usage. And it is has been used often. I can recall crossing it with water up to but not over the elevated roadway (bridge). I was but a small child and my father worked for the US Corps of Engineers in New Orleans.

He always said the Bonnet Carrie was opened when the flood gauge at Carrolton Street read 18 feet. New Orleans levees could not tolerate much more than 20 feet at best. So the Bonnet Carrie has been used many times since its construction pre war days some time after the great 1927 flood.

The new John J. Audubon Bridge opened yesterday as the St Francisville ferry was shut down due to high water. The ferry had no place to dock on the New Roads side of the river. This is a sort of annual event anyway, not necessiarily caused by the current anticipated flooding. The bridge is open prematurely with little fan fair. I am sure there will be festivities later in the year.

Let us hope that the new bridge does not become an evacuation route for Pointe Coupee. Ironically, New Roads in all the history of crevasses in Pointe Coupee has never gotten more that 3 or 4 feet of water, and that was only once. However, you can imagine what happens to False River. The camp would be under water!

And it would take a while for it to drain off. It would be a grand disaster of epic proportions. Now you know why the Morrison plantation house is up high on brick pillars.

Much A-do About Bin Laden

It is over, he's dead. He seemingly died ignobly by using one of his wives as a shield. What a POS.

All pundits seem to say it is better he died, keeping him around was said to be very troublesome.

No matter, he is gone. The head of the snake is cut off. It will writhe for a while yet, but its source of money is now gone. And we are advised it will gradually dry up.

No so for the Taliban, they still rage on in Afghanistan and it will for a while too. But now that one of their precious icons has been tapped out, means are we are getting closer to eradication. Take the next one and then the next one and they will learn. Dogmatic as they are, most of them do not wish to die, just for others to die.

As the man said, "Kill'em." There is no salvaging of the radicals. Terrorism has gotten into their blood and they lust for it. So give them what they want, an early and untimely death.